Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 2.155965 2.273981 2.401144 2.549524 2.719487 2.910116 3.143129
2025-06-01 2.011362 2.159930 2.326781 2.531085 2.779066 3.076988 3.473599
2025-06-08 1.909120 2.075227 2.267186 2.510542 2.819184 3.211107 3.773240
2025-06-15 1.851256 2.033710 2.249951 2.532920 2.907124 3.409501 4.190722
2025-06-22 1.757188 1.941038 2.161855 2.455806 2.853702 3.405480 4.307639
2025-06-29 1.709029 1.900476 2.134186 2.452007 2.895216 3.536764 4.662099
2025-07-06 1.646576 1.838452 2.075025 2.401035 2.864364 3.554252 4.825174
2025-07-13 1.626176 1.827514 2.079778 2.435092 2.956479 3.772163 5.419140
2025-07-20 1.619735 1.833349 2.105827 2.499275 3.098761 4.095893 6.379431
2025-07-27 1.591199 1.809054 2.090067 2.502329 3.146198 4.263369 7.080928
2025-08-03 1.565277 1.786874 2.075697 2.505797 3.193722 4.438988 7.932542
2025-08-10 1.518616 1.735701 2.019517 2.444054 3.128013 4.382557 8.029427
2025-08-17 1.490005 1.708716 1.997119 2.433970 3.152408 4.521894 8.970212
2025-08-24 1.461943 1.681385 1.972912 2.419383 3.167262 4.644477 10.023656
2025-08-31 1.434745 1.654248 1.947750 2.401627 3.174520 4.752128 11.217523
2025-09-07 1.421502 1.645332 1.947642 2.422306 3.252168 5.041446 14.306379
2025-09-14 1.381240 1.598539 1.891933 2.352380 3.156710 4.887838 13.775292
2025-09-21 1.363176 1.581593 1.878434 2.348984 3.185643 5.056831 16.814875
2025-09-28 1.333160 1.547523 1.839226 2.302543 3.129235 4.992562 17.258348
2025-10-05 1.327414 1.546615 1.847836 2.333613 3.224584 5.363538 28.414644
2025-10-12 1.329493 1.556466 1.872337 2.392026 3.381393 5.984767 NaN
2025-10-19 1.316199 1.544417 1.863953 2.394803 3.424382 6.269313 NaN
2025-10-26 1.303616 1.533017 1.856097 2.397955 3.468478 6.581069 NaN